Time to Run?

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Gary R. Matthews

 There were alarmist headlines late last week about the inverted yield curve, something that can signal an upcoming economic recession. The media is quite good at sounding alarms. The implied investor reaction is to retreat to the sidelines until the economic bust is over and get back into the market once the yield curve has developed a healthy steepness. 

 Many investors apparently thought so. The S&P 500, on Friday, dropped 1.9%, as people reacted as if a recession would happen on Monday. Wise investing is not so simple.

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 Why?

The yield curve is a line plotting out the interest rate (yield) that is paid to investors across maturities, from three month to 30 year. An inversion happens whenever the shorter maturity bonds provide higher yields than longer-term ones—which is counterintuitive since the risks of holding bonds longer-term are greater than if you’re parking your money for a few months. Longer-term, you could experience inflation, default or a rise in interest rates making that 20 or 30 year bond much less attractive. 

Data Source : Treasury.gov

This current so-called “yield curve inversion” really looks more like a flat line stretching from short-term to intermediate-term bonds. What was widely reported was a (probably brief) moment when the 3-month Treasury note offered higher interest than the 10-year bond—by (get ready to be shocked) 0.022%. You could see roughly the same spread difference around the beginning of 2006, which was not a very clear signal and did not result in a recession until a year and a half later. 

 The lesson here is that, yes, we have experienced a yield curve inversion sometime before each of the last seven recessions. However, there have also been two false positives—an inversion in late 1966 that was followed by economic growth, and a largely flat curve, like the one we are experiencing now, in late 1998 that also didn’t presage a recession. 

 Moreover, even if we accept the idea that a yield curve is a recession signal, the actual timing is almost impossible to predict. Data from Bianco Research has shown that over the last 50 years, a recession followed, on average, 311 days later—roughly a year. But this is an average of some pretty broad fluctuations.  Following that brief inversion in 2006, the economy didn’t experience recession for another 487 days. In contrast, it took just 213 days for the U.S. economy to enter recession territory after a July 2000 yield curve inversion. Based on this somewhat paltry evidence, selling the day after an inversion seems like a poor strategy. Selling a month, or six months after doesn’t make sense either.

Finally, some economists think that the yield curve is not nearly the accurate signal that it once was. The reasons are a bit technical, but they have to do with the increasing control that the central banks—including the U.S. Fed—have on the shorter end of the yield curve. The Fed and other central banks have been buying up government bonds for their balance sheet, which means the shorter-term yields can no longer be seen as market driven.

 So, what IS an accurate signal of upcoming recession? There are some tried-and-true signs, including an overheating rate of GDP growth (which we haven’t seen at all in this long, slow recovery), rising unemployment (no) and spiking interest rates (not yet). Another sign that directly impacts the yield curve is a sudden demand for longer-term bonds as a safe haven for nervous investors, causing the bond rates to drop below shorter-term paper. There has been no indication yet of a shift in demand for bonds over stocks.

 What does all this mean? SRI investors are patient investors, investing in and holding good companies for the long term. It’s wise to take all alarms sounded by the media with a grain of salt. We are still as much in the dark about what the economy and markets will do in the future as we were before 3-month Treasury bills returned a shocking 0.022% more than 10-year Treasury bonds. We might experience a recession this year, or next, or in 2022. All we know for sure is that we WILL experience one, possibly with a few unexpected market ups and downs in the meantime.

 

Sources:

 Article adapted from a Bob Veres draft, with permission.

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22

 https://seekingalpha.com/article/4250705-inverted-yield-curve-another-viewpoint

 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-could-fall-40-as-yield-curve-inverts-says-analyst-of-one-of-2018s-best-hedge-fund-returns-2019-03-22

 https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2019/03/23/the-yield-curve-just-inverted-putting-the-chance-of-a-recession-at-30/#2f7232bb13ab

 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/20/a-recession-indicator-with-a-perfect-track-record-over-70-years-is-close-to-being-triggered.html

Inverted Yield Curve Image : https://medium.com/@DuomoInitiative/understanding-the-inverted-yield-curve-3d65b6237881

Bianco Research Tweet Image : https://twitter.com/biancoresearch

2006/2019 Yield Curve Comparison Image : https://thesoundingline.com/us-treasury-yield-curve-is-more-inverted-than-at-this-point-in-the-run-up-to-the-financial-crisis/