Trump

Another Tariff, Another Downturn

Another Tariff, Another Downturn

When Mr. Trump was elected President, I cautioned against panic (although I was feeling some of it myself). I wrote the vibrancy of the global economy and the securities markets that reflect it transcend any U.S. administration and its policies. Privately, I remember thinking that even though that might be true, a Trump administration would almost assuredly create chaos and an increase in short term market volatility.

But that didn’t happen – at least not right away. Instead, the markets focused on an improving economy both in the U.S. and abroad and yielded a banner year in 2017. So far, the narrative for 2018 is different, and yes, Trump is finally causing the economic and market chaos I feared.

Normalcy vs. Complacency

Normalcy vs. Complacency

OK, a couple of my clients have wondered why I haven’t bothered to comment on the recent gyrations in the market. I might well have commented around February 7 when it appeared the sky was falling, but as it happened I was on vacation in St. John, one of the Caribbean islands hit hardest by last fall’s hurricanes (and happy to be there spending money, thereby helping the recovery efforts). Internet service on the island is still very sporadic, and we didn’t have any service where we were staying that week. Standing outdoors in St. John, it was nice and warm, and the sky didn’t appear to be falling at all, just blue and beautiful.

Of course, by the time I returned home the market indexes had begun to recover, and the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P 500 ended last week up 4.3% each, their biggest gains in five years. Stocks are still off their recent record highs, but certainly things appear to have stabilized.