There It Goes

I’m a life-long fan of the New York Yankees. Among my earliest TV memories as a child is watching Mickey Mantle hit home runs. These days Michael Kay is the TV play-by-play broadcaster of the New York Yankees. He’s well-known for calling home runs. As the ball is leaving the park, he hollers, “There it goes, see ya!”

This afternoon, Donald Trump gave the same message on behalf of the United States to the Paris climate accord and virtually all other nations, with virtually the same emphasis. There it goes, see ya! We can only hope the same cannot be said for our civilization’s chances of averting climate disaster. Trump’s latest move, arguably the dumbest in a whole series of dumb moves as President, makes me ashamed of being a citizen of the United States. It is becoming hard to watch the news at all without becoming truly shaken.

Perversely, the markets gained broadly today as oil prices stabilized. In my last blog, I commented on the market’s reaction to Trumpism thus far. Investors have done well in the markets since the election as it continues to interpret Trump’s actions as creating a wild, wild west business climate in which profits will abound. Yet this optimistic outlook for the business climate couldn’t be more different than that for our real climate.

SRI investors have different reasons for continuing to maintain their long-term investment plans. Many might be wondering now if it really makes sense to invest in a sustainable economy when the business world seems to be careening in the opposite direction. Yet, in recent weeks a number of the nation’s largest tech companies, including Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), and Intel signed an open letter urging Trump to keep the U.S. in the Paris accord, noting that expanding markets for clean technology creates new jobs and contributes to economic growth. Another open letter to the President ran as a recent ad in the Wall Street Journal, offering strong support for the Paris accord – signed by the CEOs of thirty other major U.S. corporations, including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Even ExxonMobil was against the exit, and its former CEO and Trump’s Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, just signed an international declaration emphasizing the importance of the Paris accord in tackling climate change!

The smartest leaders and innovators of the best companies in the world, large and small, will continue to move toward greater sustainability because they know their future profitability, indeed their future survival, depends on it. SRI investors are helping them get there with their investment decisions and increasingly successful shareholder advocacy initiatives. In a very recent landmark investor vote, 62% of ExxonMobil shareholders voted on May 31 to require the company to report on the impacts of climate change to its business. With the President’s decision today, there will be more impacts to report.

In the meantime, the next Presidential election cannot come soon enough. And when it does, we can only hope the cry will be, “There he goes, see ya!”

Where Are We Now?

So, here’s the conundrum we find ourselves in today as investors. On the one hand, the U.S. economy is still on track and expanding according to the leading indicators I’m looking at. It suggests the current 8-year bull market has no fundamental reason now to reverse itself and become a bear.

On the other hand, there is Trump. Why do I say that, you might wonder? The markets have taken a roller coaster ride up since the election in what quickly became known as the “Trump Bump?”  The Bump seems only to have added to the bull with the promises of tax rate reductions for business and less regulation dangling in the air. 

In my mind, however, the Trump Bump is only the latest example of how the markets often act contrary to reason and logic in the short run, even as they tend to follow the larger economy in the longer term. 

The Trump I’m worried about is the ever capricious, totally unpredictable, real live individual in the White House who, day by day, exhibits his incompetency while occupying the most powerful office in the world. The Comey firing is only latest in a continuing series of troubling events. Let me quote John Cassidy of The New Yorker magazine on that:

At a time like this, it is important to express things plainly. On Tuesday evening (May 9), Donald Trump acted like a despot. Without warning or provocation, he summarily fired the independent-minded director of the F.B.I., James Comey. Comey had been overseeing an investigation into whether there was any collusion between Trump’s Presidential campaign and the government of Russia. With Comey out of the way, Trump can now pick his own man (or woman) to run the Bureau, and this person will have the authority to close down that investigation.
That is what has happened. It amounts to a premeditated and terrifying attack on the American system of government. Quite possibly, it will usher in a constitutional crisis. Even if it doesn’t, it represents the most unnerving turn yet in what is a uniquely unnerving Presidency. (The New Yorker, May 9, 2017)

It seems very likely to me that this President’s reckless actions will eventually cause a national or global political crisis that will spill over to negatively affect the economy and trigger the next downturn in the markets. Yet, in the immediate wake of the election I wrote that the global economy transcends almost any national political event. Of course, I was concerned then the markets would do a nosedive and wanted to caution my clients to stay calm. Instead, the markets catapulted upward. 

And there’s the lesson. I’ve said it repeatedly. We can’t predict future events, or how the markets will react to them. How many of us predicted Trump would be a serious Presidential candidate? How many of us predicted he would become President? How many SRI investors, in the wake of the election, thought a Trump presidency would cause the markets to leap ahead? What we know now about the markets and the economy is essentially the same as what we knew before the election: the markets have been up for about 8 years, the leading U.S. economic indicators are still mostly positive, and we will have a market downturn in the foreseeable future, although we don’t know when.

There will almost certainly be market turbulence ahead. Smart investors, and in my humble opinion SRI investors are all smart investors, will stick to their long-term investment plan, and get ready to rebalance their portfolios if the market makes a major move. If you are not in the stock market now, make sure before you jump in that you have an appetite for some risk and are ready to invest for the long term.

Where we are now is in the thick of change and uncertainty, always a time for investors to stay calm.

Happy Countries

The World Happiness Report is out, and a group of independent experts have now compiled surveys of people in 156 countries, asking them to evaluate their lives on a scale of 1-10.  They then looked at some of the factors that seem to contribute to happiness, and identified five: real GDP per capita (a measure of average wealth); healthy life expectancy at birth; freedom to make life choices; generosity; and whether they perceived their society to have elements of corruption.

Number One on the list is Norway, and you might see a certain pattern when you see the runners-up: 2) Denmark, 3) Iceland, 4) Switzerland, 5) Finland, 6) The Netherlands and 7) Canada.  Sweden comes in at number 10, rounding out the socialistic Nordic societies.  In between are 8) New Zealand and 9) Australia.

Where does the U.S. rank?  Number 14, behind Israel (11), Costa Rica (12) and Austria (13).  The U.S. ranked poorly in social support and, interestingly, mental illness.  America’s ranking was as high as third in 2007, when people were less likely to cite corruption as a part of their lives.

Where are people least happy?  Most African countries reported low levels of happiness.  And, interestingly, the people in China report being no happier today than they were 25 years ago, despite rapidly-growing per capita income.  Chinese respondents to the survey attribute their lagging happiness to rising unemployment and a poor social safety net for the less fortunate.

What does all this have to do with SRI?  Maybe nothing, but my bet is that SRI investors are happier than the average American, not only because they have money to invest, but because they know they are doing something to contribute to a happier world!

Sources:
Adapted from a Bob Veres draft, with permission.
http://worldhappiness.report/ed/2017/
http://www.inc.com/business-insider/21-happiest-countries-world-2017.html?cid=sf01001&sr_share=twitter

Young Adults – Are They Good or Bad with Money?

Younger Americans (often called the Millennial generation) are saving their money at a higher rate than their Baby Boomer counterparts at a similar age.  Research from the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies shows that nearly three-quarters of younger adults are saving for retirement at an earlier age than past generations.  Half are putting away 6% of their income or more—a statistic that makes this generation the best cohort of savers since the Great Depression, despite having to carry record high levels of student loan debt.  Those who participate in their workplace retirement plans are saving 7% a year, on average.

Unfortunately, these same younger Americans are not equally good at investing.  While they are more aware and supportive of SRI than previous generations, the research suggests that many younger people are frightened and confused by the topic of investing in general, and often keep their money in their bank accounts.  That’s a problem, since low interest rates essentially drop the return on investment to 0% a year.  In the Transamerica survey, 25% of younger respondents said they weren’t sure how their retirement savings were invested, and, when they were encouraged to look more closely, they reported higher allocations to bonds, money market funds and other low-return investments than their Baby Boomer or Generation X counterparts.

Investing starts with saving, so younger Americans are off to a good start. Unfortunately, investing is not a topic taught in high school – not even in college for the most part. Young people want to do good things with their investment assets as well as make a positive return – hence their enhanced interest in SRI. Yet many are too afraid of risk.  Although equity markets do go down from time to time, they have always recovered and beaten their previous highs.**

Sources:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arielleoshea/2017/02/21/5-essential-investing-moves-for-millennials/?ss=personalfinance#743c36582ab5

http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/Saving-Money/2017/0221/Why-Millennials-are-better-with-their-money-than-their-parents

*Article adapted from a Bob Veres draft, with permission.
**Past investment performance is no guarantee of future returns. Consult with your financial advisor about your personal situation.

Walkable Cities – Better Infrastructure

Only a couple of weeks into the new Trump presidency, it is tempting already for liberals and progressives to despair. The Paris Climate Accord, the Affordable Care Act, Mexico, seemingly anyone of Muslim descent, and the entire U.S. news media are under siege by the new administration. Perversely, the stock market is up on the expectation of increased business profits due to the easing of regulation, without regard to the inevitable societal cost of those policies to the environment, labor, and human rights.

One of the few nods to something hopeful Trump made during the election campaign were his statements about building up the nation’s infrastructure. Most knowledgeable commentators, despite their politics, agree the country badly needs a facelift in the form of a major modernization of our bridges, urban public transportation, inner cities, public schools, and hospitals. Undertaken properly and with commitment, modernizing our public infrastructure would provide major economic stimulus, many new jobs, and increased productivity and efficiency. 

Yet, as Paul Krugman of the Times asserted recently in his column (New York Times, Infrastructure Delusions, January 14, 2017) – “there will be no significant public investment program, for two reasons.” Congressional Republicans have set their priorities on eliminating health care for millions and cutting taxes for the rich. They have no demonstrated interest in any serious public investment program. And President Trump, despite his campaign rhetoric, has no serious policy or plan for infrastructure investment, just as he has no serious replacement for the Affordable Care Act.

The infrastructure discussion raises an associated and equally important issue - what type of infrastructure investment do we most need? Do we have a vision that would allow us to target infrastructure investment in the most optimal and beneficial way?

One vision gaining social traction is the concept of the walkable city.** More and more people in both the baby boom and millennial generations are attracted to an urban lifestyle in which community amenities like shopping, entertainment, and social activities are within walking distance from where most people live. Compact geographical areas with these “walkable” characteristics are popping up all over the country, in big cities like New York and Boston, as well as newer suburban areas being developed with walkability in focus (see www.walkscore.com).

Together, the baby-boom and millennial generations number about 160 million people, about half the U.S. population. Boomers are working longer, but as they grow older are increasingly concerned about being stranded in car-dependent suburbs and having to care for homes that are too large. Many millennials grew up in the suburbs and have had enough. Increasingly, they are looking for the social energy, job opportunities, and creativity found in more urban environments and are often happy to walk or bike to get around in these areas. In all, the market for walkable communities today is estimated at three times the demand for the suburban development fueled by the soldiers who returned from World War II and their families.

Aside from their increasing popularity, making communities more walkable will help the country address some very challenging issues:

Carbon footprint: Communities that require less driving use less energy and produce fewer greenhouse gases and other pollutants. Simply put, they are more sustainable.
Economic development: Construction and other industries that help create walkability hire low- and medium-skilled workers. Badly needed jobs are created.
Financial returns: Investment in walkable urban areas will likely yield healthy medium and long term returns.***
Upward mobility: Walkable communities can make the American dream accessible again for working and middle class Americans.
Social fabric: Walkability strengthens local communities, civic participation, and social resilience.
Health and wellness: Walkable communities improve people’s physical and psychological well-being by encouraging more exercise and time outdoors.

Contrary to the vision of walkability, Federal government investment has encouraged suburban sprawl for decades. As the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S. took hold after World War II, financing the growth of the suburbs, the shopping mall, interstate roads and the automobile were purposeful strategic economic policies for competing with and out-producing Soviet central planning. Today, although those original strategic concerns haven’t been valid for decades, Federal subsidies (think Fannie Mae) perversely continue to encourage new single-family suburban home building further and further away from the cities, so that buyers will be able to afford them. Yet many of these same buyers work in the cities, and their driving requirements increase apace, as does the expense of the roads needed to transport them.    

In sum, today there are nowhere near enough walkable communities to meet the emerging demand, and this presents a tremendous business opportunity for local businesses, citizens, city and suburban planners to partner together to create them. And as SRI continues to grow and flourish in the U.S. there will be more and more investors seeking the impact and community investment vehicles that will finance them.

Infrastructure development? Forget Trump. Buy, build, and invest local – in walkable communities.

** Much of this discussion of walkable cities is taken with appreciation from The New Grand Strategy, Restoring America’s Prosperity, Security, and Sustainability in the 21st Century, by Mark Mykleby, Patrick Doherty, and Joel Makower (St. Martin’s Press; New York, NY; 2016).
***Investing involves risk, including the loss of principal.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Mention of any security or investment strategy should not be considered an offer to buy or sell that security or to employ that investment strategy.  For information on the suitability of any investment for your portfolio, please contact your investment advisor.

SRI is Booming!

Since November 8, the world has seemed darker for many SRI investors and others who see themselves as socially liberal or progressive. In my last two blogs, however, I’ve suggested that actions by the U.S. government will likely not dictate the future of human and planetary wellness and sustainability. Simply put, our future is still in our own hands, in how we as people and communities conduct our lives, our relationships, and our businesses – in how we generate our incomes and how we spend and invest those incomes.

On that front, there is some very good news, released very recently by US SIF (The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment). SRI is booming!! In 2016, USSIF’s SRI Trends Report* reports that sustainable, responsible, impact (SRI) investments in the U.S. now total $8.72 trillion. That’s a 33% increase from 2014!

Most of this investment volume is implemented by professional money managers on behalf of financial advisors and institutional and retail SRI investor clients like you. These managers consider environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) criteria alongside financial criteria in constructing and managing their portfolios, and the top two issues they are considering today are conflict risk (i.e. terrorism and war-making) and climate change.

An integral and important part of the SRI trend is the active participation by SRI professionals and investors in shareowner advocacy. Shareowner resolutions filed on ESG issues from 2014 to 2016 represented over $2.5 trillion in assets at the beginning of 2016 – and those resolutions are garnering greater support at corporate shareowner meetings around the country.

Taking an increasingly important part as well is the continued growth and spread of different impact and community investment opportunities and products. Community impact investments** allow more and more investors to direct their capital toward local farming and urban community development, fair trade businesses, sustainable forestry, micro-finance, alternative energy projects, and so on.

Perhaps most gratifying – the explosive SRI growth is being driven largely by client demand. SRI continues to bubble up from the grassroots, from people like you and me and from religious and endowment institutions, not from government action or mandate. 

*See Report of US Sustainable, Responsible and Impact Investing Trends 2016, published by US SIF.
**Mention of specific types of investments does not constitute a recommendation to invest.
 

Getting a Grip

It’s been about two weeks since the election. I’m very thankful I could spend much of the first week with friends and colleagues at the annual SRI Conference in Denver. As a group, we grounded each other – enabling us each to “get a grip” on the implications of having Mr. Trump as our next President. We came away from the conference collectively believing that SRI is now more important than ever. My own reflections have me wanting to be more specific and articulate about why and how I think that is true.

In the coming weeks, I will be writing more often, focusing on three themes I believe are important as we continue our work together as SRI investors. Before I say more about that, let me comment more immediately on the markets. In the aftermath of the election, the markets have been amazingly calm, and that is a very good thing. At a moment when many investors might have reacted emotionally with their assets, as they often do when unexpected events occur, cool heads have prevailed so far. In my mind, this is only one more example of an investor maxim – we simply can’t predict how the markets will react to future events. That is true about near-term future events and longer-term future events. To say a Trump presidency portends uncertainty is an understatement, and how the markets will react in the coming years is even more uncertain. We can only predict the markets will move more in concert with the economy than with U.S. governmental action, and in this case that might also be a good thing. Fundamentally, though, nothing has changed yet to warrant investors changing their long-term investment strategies.

 

Back to the three themes I will be writing more about. The first is climate change, no surprise. On this issue, I agree with Paul Krugman of the New York Times, who wrote last week it is the thing that concerns (scares) him the most about a Trump presidency. Already, the President-elect has named a climate change denier to head the EPA. Time is growing short for the world to make the transition to sustainability, and the U.S. should be leading the transition. Yet all political signals right now are to the contrary. SRI investors will play an ever more crucial role in encouraging the move away from fossil fuel energy production and a faster conversion to alternative energy. And while investing directly in alternative energy companies has so far been a dicey proposition, the development and production of alternative energy has been accelerating in recent years as the costs of that development have come down dramatically. That trend, along with the advent of new investment options, will only continue despite the obstructionist policies of a Republican-dominated federal government. 

The second theme I want to focus on is community impact investing, and this for me stems directly from the election results. It is well-documented that Trump’s electoral college victory was made possible through his effective appeal to a wide swath of mostly white, blue-collar voters from the geographical heartland of the country. “Make America Great Again” implies a prior fall from greatness, and roughly 60 million U.S. voters ratified that belief with their votes. It’s also apparent these voters put aside concerns about Trump’s evident narcissism, racism, and history of abusive treatment of women because they believe he will help them improve their lives financially. As an advocate for SRI, I think it’s important we pay attention to that, for it is true that so many of the people who voted for Trump are the same people who live in communities that have not recovered economically or financially from the Great Recession of 2008-09. When we as SRI investors engage in community impact investing, we are directing capital in the U.S. specifically to these same communities, creating more opportunities for economic flourishing. This election tells me we haven’t done nearly enough on this front, and so I will be highlighting more community investment opportunities in future articles.

Finally, I believe in and am professionally committed to SRI because I believe SRI investors are helping to bring about a better world. At the unexpected dawn of a Trump presidency, many Trump opponents now feel a better world will be less attainable, if attainable at all. But do we have a clear picture of what that better world will look like? Yes, we say, it will be a more just, compassionate, and sustainable world, but can we see clearly what it will take to get us there? What are the concrete details, and the specific public and economic policies that will bring about and comprise a just and sustainable economy? I want to explore those questions more fully going forward because if SRI investors want to direct their capital to bring about a better world, it makes sense we will do so more effectively if we can more clearly envision that world.

The future beckons. SRI will continue to be an important part of it.  

The Great Divide

Unthinkable. That is the word that kept coming to mind last night as the election results poured in. Is this really happening? This morning, however, a bit more clarity has me asking myself why I am so surprised. Has Trump not been doing the unthinkable for months now, and come out on top with every new contest?

Clearly, so many in our country are seeking major changes, changes they are hoping will make their lives better. I shuddered earlier in the campaign when many Sanders supporters were saying publicly they would likely vote for Trump rather than Clinton. In my mind, many Trump voters have been flailing about blindly, and did so again yesterday. But are we not engaged in sustainable, responsible impact investing (SRI) to change our country and our world for the better? Are we not also seeking better lives for ourselves and our children?

As investors, and especially as SRI investors, we want to avoid acting blindly with our portfolios. Now, when the markets will surely be choppy for some time – now is the time to remain calm and to stay with your long-term investment plan. Times of uncertainty are rarely good times to sell. The value of your portfolio does not depend on who occupies the White House, but rather on economic fundamentals that today are global in nature and ultimately transcend U.S. politics. Indeed, the type of world we live in, and in which we will live in the future, is and will be shaped less by how we vote than by how we spend and invest our money.

The Great Divide. Politically, that might well and accurately describe our country. But on a more fundamental level, all of us are seeking better lives, lives with more joy and freedom. It does us little good to bemoan an election that has not gone our way. Rather, last night’s results add clarity and purpose to why we are SRI investors, and why we will do well to stay the course. 

Good News About Global Warming

It surely isn’t news to SRI investors that our world is in for trouble unless we make significant changes in how our global economy produces the energy it needs to function.  Indeed, investing in and for a sustainable planet overall is a primary SRI objective.  Yet, global climate reports tell us that even if we shift totally over to clean energy tomorrow (not likely), the troubling warming trend—and polar ice melts, flooding of coastal areas, and increasing droughts, hurricanes and severe winters—will continue to accelerate for the next 30-50 years. The damage has already been done.

But is it irreversible?  An ideal solution would not just reduce carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, but remove some of what has already been pumped into the atmosphere.

There are two interesting developments along this front.  First, researchers from Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Iceland are perfecting a technique which would mix carbon dioxide captured from the smoke stacks of a power plant with water and hydrogen sulfide, and then inject the mixture into basalt rock—a substance which makes up about 70% of the Earth’s crust.  The result: 95% of the carbon solidifies into stone, due to a reaction between the various ingredients.  In effect, carbon dioxide has been turned to stone and stored away securely—more or less forever.  Currently, in Iceland, the local energy utility has been pumping 5,000 tons of carbon dioxide a year into underground rock formations.

Of course, that’s a small drop in a very large bucket: currently our various industrial processes release more than 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year.  But if each power plant had its own recapture facility, that figure would come down dramatically.

Meanwhile, a company called Global Thermostat* is testing a carbon capture unit in Silicon Valley that could suck carbon dioxide directly out of the air, reducing our global carbon footprint and potentially reversing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

The unit, which looks like a giant dehumidifier, would be attached to a power plant or factory, and be powered by the residual heat of the facility itself.  Large pipes would bring the power plant’s emissions into the unit, while external intakes would suck in the outside air.  The carbon is captured from both sources, rendering the plants “carbon negative,” reducing carbon dioxide in the nearby atmosphere—and cranking out a pure enough form of carbon to be sold at a profit for industrial uses, including plastics, manufacturing, bio-fertilizers, biofuels and soda factories.  All but the fuels would keep the carbon sequestered and out of the atmosphere.  

The test unit can extract up to 10,000 tons of carbon per year, which means the world would need roughly 3 million of them to offset the current level of emissions, and many more if we want to start scrubbing the atmosphere and addressing those scary future projections.  The company envisions attaching these units to power plants, and also creating farms of them in remote locations to start the long, difficult process of undoing the environmental damage of our energy economy.

Developments like these, along with the fact that the cost of producing usable solar energy has come down dramatically in recent years to become truly competitive with producing fossil fuels, provide hope that our planet might recover and reasons to believe that SRI investing in sustainability will be profitable.

Sources:

*Mention of specific securities should not be considered an offer to buy or sell that security.  For information on the suitability of any investment for your portfolio, please contact your investment adviser.

Adapted from a Bob Veres draft with permission.

http://www.theverge.com/2016/6/10/11901368/carbon-dioxide-capture-storage-stone-climate-change-study

http://www.oregonlive.com/today/index.ssf/2016/06/scientists_turn_carbon_dioxide.html

A Market High – Yes, Let’s Celebrate

In case you hadn’t noticed, the S&P 500 index reached record territory yesterday (July 11), and the Nasdaq briefly crossed over the 5,000 level before settling back with a more modest gain.  At 2,137.6, the S&P 500 finished above the previous high of 2,130.82, set on May 21, 2015.

SRI investors want to make a positive difference with their money, but they also want to experience some positive gains financially, so it’s nice to see the markets recover.  We’ve waited more than a year for the markets to get back to where they were before the downturn this January, before Brexit, before a lot of uncertainties in the last 12 months.  But a market top can suggest a different uncertainty; after all, many investors regard market tops warily.  When stocks are more expensive than they have ever been (so goes the thinking) it might be time to sell and take your profits.  However, if you had followed this logic in the past and sold every time the market hit a new high, you’d probably have been sitting on the sidelines during most of the long ride from the S&P at 13.55 in June 1949, which was the bull market high after the index started at 10.  New highs are a normal part of the market, and it is just as likely that tomorrow will see a new one as not.  In fact, the Dow is approaching another all-time high of its own right now.  Overall, the market spends roughly 12% of its life at all-time highs.

We all know the next bear market will start with an all-time high, but we can never know which one in advance.  Market highs do not necessarily become market tops. The smart advice for SRI investors is the same whether the markets are up or down.  Save, invest your savings in potentially profitable businesses that might also improve society and the environment, and stay invested for the long term.  So yes, let yourself relax and celebrate the highs when they come.

Information about market indexes was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy.  Indexes are unmanaged groups of securities and are not directly available for investment.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Sources:

Adapted by Gary Matthews from a Bob Veres draft, with permission.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/shreyaagarwal/2016/07/11/sp-500-closes-at-record-high/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#7f74bf29721d

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-climb-with-sp-near-record-high-2016-07-11?siteid=yhoof2

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2014/06/19/new-highs-dont-mean-you-have-to-sell/10921973/

US SIF Foundation Releases Report on Impact of Sustainable Investment

New US SIF report details four broad areas of significant impact 

WASHINGTON, DC, June 29, 2016 – Sustainable, responsible and impact investors have influenced the investment industry, companies, governments and other actors to address environmental, social and governance (ESG) challenges in four major areas, according to The Impact of Sustainable and Responsible Investment, a report released today by the US SIF Foundation.  

Drawing upon a range of data, surveys and examples, the report focuses on four significant impacts of sustainable, responsible and impact (SRI) investors over the past 25 years.  SRI investors have:  

  • changed the investment industry, leading to more SRI products and greater access to expert practitioners;
  • improved public companies by stepping up active shareholder ownership and engagement on ESG issues;
  • aided communities and individuals via community investing and other initiatives; and
  • influenced public policy and launched organizations to promote sustainable investment.

First issued in 2013, this updated report notes that in the United States, according to biennial surveys by the US SIF Foundation, the value of assets that take into account ESG factors in investment analysis or shareholder engagement grew 76 percent between 2012 and 2014 to reach $6.57 trillion—or one out of every six dollars under professional management. 

With this growth has come new evidence of SRI investors’ influence.  For example:

·         In 2016, in response to the growing demand for and appreciation of ESG factors in investment, MSCI and Morningstar each launched products to provide investors with assessments of how well the underlying companies in a wide swath of mutual funds perform on ESG issues.

·         In response to resolutions from concerned investors, the percentage of S&P 500 companies that allowed shareholders a formal mechanism to propose candidates for board elections in the company’s annual meeting materials increased from just 1 percent in 2013 to 20 percent in 2015. These developments raise the prospect of more competitive board elections and greater board accountability. 

·         Numerous companies have made improvements in their environmental practices.  For example, several major US food companies agreed to obtain 100 percent of the palm oil for their products from responsibly produced sources that do not clear cut tropical forests.

·         Community and place-based investing, both domestically and internationally, have gained new adherents among high net worth individuals and institutional investors interested in focusing on specific geographic regions.

·         More than 1.2 million investors and their representatives have commented on a 2011 petition at the US Securities and Exchange Commission to require publicly-traded companies to report their political spending.   The volume of comments—the vast majority in favor of the petition—is a record in SEC rule-making history.

·         US SIF and sustainable investors helped persuade the US Department of Labor to rescind a 2008 bulletin that had discouraged fiduciaries for private sector retirement plans from considering environmental and social factors in their investments. In its place, Labor Secretary Thomas Perez issued guidance that fiduciaries may incorporate “ESG-related tools, metrics and analyses to evaluate an investment’s risk or return or choose among otherwise equivalent investments.”

“We believe that this report is the broadest assessment to date of the many ways in which SRI investors have been a force for positive change,” said Lisa Woll, CEO of US SIF and the US SIF Foundation.  “Since we released the first edition of this report in 2013, the interest in sustainable and impact investing has grown dramatically and its practice has become more widespread.  With the recent Department of Labor guidance that makes clear that fiduciaries can consider ESG factors for retirement plans, we expect this trend to continue. That is good news for investors, companies and communities across the globe.”

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The US SIF Foundation is a 501c3 organization that undertakes educational, research and programmatic activities to advance the mission of US SIF.   The Foundation houses the Center for Sustainable Investment Education, which serves the growing need of investment professionals in the United States to gain expertise in the field of sustainable, responsible and impact investment.  The Center provides education, research and thought leadership on sustainable investment to investors, investment advisors, consultants and analysts. Online and live versions are offered of the Fundamentals of Sustainable and Responsible Investment, a resource for investment advisors, financial planners and other financial professionals. 

US SIF: The Forum for Sustainable and Responsible Investment is the leading voice advancing sustainable, responsible, and impact investing across all asset classes.  Our mission is to rapidly shift investment practices towards sustainability, focusing on long-term investment and the generation of positive social and environmental impacts.
US SIF members include investment management and advisory firms, mutual fund companies, research firms, financial planners and advisors, broker-dealers, community investing organizations, nonprofit associations, and pension funds, foundations and other asset owners. Learn more at www.ussif.org.

The Brexit Moment of Truth

On Thursday, British voters shocked Europe and the world by voting not to continue to be part of the European Union. The vote is momentous for Europe as a whole, a now failed test of whether the union can hold together in the face of myriad challenges like the Syrian refugee crisis, disparities in wealth and economic health between north and south, and debt problems like those posed by Greece, Spain and Italy.  Strong anti-EU parties in Germany, the Netherlands, Greece, Spain and Italy will certainly be emboldened now that Britain has voted to secede from the EU.

British Prime Minister David Cameron was strongly in favor of staying in the EU, as was much of his Conservative government, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party. Cameron has now announced his resignation.  Ironically, with “Brexit,” the Scottish people might vote to exit Britain and join the EU on their own.

On the other side, Brexit was championed by many lower-wage workers in Britain who view EU membership as an attack on British sovereignty. 

What now?  With an “exit” vote, British companies could lose access to the consolidated European market for duty-free trade and financial services.  Some analysts think that London might be unable to function as Europe’s de facto financial center if Britain were no longer a part of Europe’s union.  And U.S. companies have long seen Britain as the gateway to free trade with the 28 nations in the European Union, which explains why American corporations and Wall Street firms donated substantial sums to the “stay” campaign.  Britain could lose American investment and manufacturing jobs that might well move across the channel to mainland Europe instead.

Add it all up, and the International Monetary Fund has predicted that Brexit could reduce British economic growth by up to 5.6 percent in the next three years, partly driven by a sharp decline in the British currency.  Indeed, the British pound lost as much as 11% Thursday night into Friday morning as the voting results became known. Meanwhile, you may have noticed that the global investment markets have become noticeably choppier in the run-up to the vote (mostly on the upside, as polls and the markets had most recently been confident the vote would go the other way).  The  British “leave” vote will create still more volatility, initially on the downside, which is why Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen has already mentioned the referendum overseas as having an influence on the decision of whether or not to raise interest rates in the U.S.

The vote was expected to be close. Indeed, the odds-makers in Britain had given 73% odds on a “stay” vote. Yet it wasn’t to be. As with virtually all unexpected global political shocks with uncertain consequences, the markets are reacting negatively. Yet markets also have a habit of recovering fairly quickly when these events occur. The likely transition will be a long-term but ultimately graceful accommodation between the UK and Europe.  The formal European Union “exit clause” sets forth a two-year period of negotiations between exiting countries and the remaining union. So for the near-term future, despite what you might read elsewhere, the UK is still part of the Eurozone.

Market volatility will likely be high for some time. Investors virtually always do well to stay calm when the markets get crazy. Now is one of those times.  

Sources:

Article adapted from a Bob Veres draft with permission.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/18/how-brexit-could-hurt-america/
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/world/europe/britain-european-union-brexit.html?_r=0
https://www.yahoo.com/news/brexit-shows-global-desire-throw-142925862.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/after-brexit-what-will-and-wont-happen/2016/06/24/c9f7a2f6-39f1-11e6-8f7c-d4c723a2becb_story.html

Horsesmouth Article

The article below is a recently published transcript of an interview I (Gary) did with Horsesmouth, a member organization dedicated to supporting and educating professional financial advisors. In it, I underline the importance of honest and proactive communication between advisors and clients, especially when markets are volatile.

I’m inviting you to read all or a part of the article, and if you have any suggestions about how we can improve our communication please let me know with a phone call (888-596-0353) or quick email ([email protected]). We very much appreciate your trust and are always striving to provide the best and most valuable client service we possibly can.

Thank you in advance!
Gary

Amy's New Email Series for Couples

So many of today’s busy couples are looking for ways to cultivate a deeper connection and find a better sense of balance – especially in the areas of time, energy and money.

Beginning June 1, Amy will be teaming up with relationship therapist Rebecca Wong and yoga and meditation instructor Lana Heintjes to present the 21-Day Relationship Reboot Challenge – a free email series offering daily tips on how to recharge your relationship and re-envision the way you both relate to money.

Whether you’re in a relationship now or hoping to be in one in the future, you won’t want to miss this.

The Bear That Wasn’t: First Quarter in the Markets

The first quarter of the new year has brought us small positive returns in many of the U.S. market indices, which means that investors survived—for now, at least—the worst start to a calendar year ever for the U.S. stock market.

The Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index--the broadest measure of U.S. stocks and bonds—was up 1.17% for the first three months of 2016, which is remarkable considering that the index was down more than 10% by the second week of February.  The comparable Russell 3000 index has gained 0.97% so far this year.

Meanwhile, global markets are not off to a good start.  The broad-based EAFE index of companies in developed foreign economies lost 3.74% in dollar terms in the first quarter of the year, in part because Far Eastern stocks were down 6.06%.  In aggregate, European stocks lost 3.18%, and are now down more than 10% over the past 12 months.  Emerging markets stocks of less developed countries, as represented by the EAFE EM index, fared better, gaining 5.37% for the quarter. 

The easy call at the beginning of the year would have been to bail out when the markets were declining and sit out the widely-predicted start of a painful, protracted bear market.  Some analysts were talking openly about another 2008-9 drop in share prices.  But 10% market declines are simply a part of the market’s normal turbulence, and anyone who spooks as soon as they see a month of bearish sentiment is likely to miss out on the subsequent gains.  Since hitting their 2016 lows on February 11, both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite have gained roughly 13% in value.

That doesn’t guarantee that there will be continuing gains going forward, however.  The Market Watch website reports that half of the S&P 500 sectors are reporting declines in earnings per share this quarter over the same period last year, and a poll by the FactSet analysts suggests that seven out of the ten sectors will end the earnings season reporting declining earnings.

Part of the wind at the backs of stocks this past six weeks has come, yet again, from the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, which had originally signaled that it planned to raise interest rates four times this year.  After its most recent meeting, the Fed is projecting just two interest rate hikes this year, and Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has clearly indicated that the Fed will remain cautious about disrupting the markets or the economy as it unwinds its various QE initiatives.  

Investors also seemed to take comfort that the Chinese stock market has stabilized—for now, at least.  Recently, Chinese officials reported the first rise in an important manufacturing statistic—the purchasing managers index—in eight months.

But arguably the biggest stabilizer of U.S. and global stock markets was the rise in oil—or, more precisely, the end of a long unnerving drop in the price of crude that caused anxiety to ripple through the investor community (Figure 2).  Analysts are not sure how the price of a barrel of crude oil is connected with the value of stocks; indeed, for most companies, lower energy costs are a net plus to the bottom line.  But investors generally seemed to take comfort in the fact that oil prices had stabilized.  It’s worth noting that the day the stock market hit its low for the year—February 11—was also the day when oil futures hit their low of $26.21 a barrel.  

We can’t predict where the markets will head during the remainder of the year; indeed, even the present is hard to understand.  Our mission as investors is to hang on and allow the millions of workers who get up every morning and go to work to do what they do best: incrementally, hour by hour, day by day, week by week, grow the value of the companies we own with their efforts.  Investors will spook and sometimes flee stocks, driving their prices down, but for the long-term, the returns on your investments are invisibly, inexorably driven by the underlying value that is created in the offices, cubicles and factory floors all over the world, especially of the sustainable and responsible companies we strive to include in our client portfolios.

Sources:

Article adapted from a Bob Veres script, with permission.
Wilshire index data: http://www.wilshire.com/Indexes/calculator/ 
Russell index data: http://www.russell.com/indexes/data/daily_total_returns_us.asp
S&P index data: http://www.standardandpoors.com/indices/sp-500/en/us/?indexId=spusa-500-usduf--p-us-l-- 

Nasdaq index data: http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Index/IndexCharts.aspx?Symbol=COMP
International indices: http://www.mscibarra.com/products/indices/international_equity_indices/performance.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-stocks-rose-during-the-first-quarter-surprised-2016-03-31
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/2016s-first-quarter-was-a-curious-case-of-mr-hyde-dr-jekyll-2016-03-31?siteid=rss&rss=1

Indexes are unmanaged groups of securities and are not directly available for investment.  This information is obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but we cannot guarantee its accuracy.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.

What's Wrong with Oil?

In a recent article in Horsesmouth (February 3, 2016), Debra and Robert Taylor infer the recent sharp drop in oil prices is signaling the imminent demise of fossil fuels at the hands of alternative energy. It’s an enticing thesis for SRI investors, but I think it’s much more complicated than that right now, having very much to do with current global economic trends. Most likely, economic slowdowns, especially in China, are what have played havoc with oil prices for over a year now. Basic economics dictates if demand for a product or commodity decreases - or is expected to decrease - its price will also go down.

Yet, the Taylors’ thesis is certainly worth considering, and SRI investors are wise to pay attention to some interesting disturbances within the energy sector itself that could shed more light, and might reap more profits.

Disrupting Energy Technologies

The Taylors remind us that periods of change are brought on by innovation. A shortage of stones didn’t shift the Stone Age into the Bronze Age. Rather, the discovery of a superior technology (bronze) made stone tools obsolete. Similarly, the horse and buggy era didn’t come to a close due to fewer horses. The internal combustion engine made traveling by horse antiquated and inefficient.

Today, a global energy disruption could be dawning, caused by more efficient, renewable technologies exposing the increasing costliness of developing fossil fuels, as well as the damage being done to our atmosphere.

Fossil fuels are increasingly costly and time-consuming to transfer into energy. They must be mined, drilled, refined, and transported - and that’s after the actual discovery of the raw materials, which is becoming more and more difficult.

Compare that to renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The raw materials required - wind and sunshine - are all around us. Furthermore, they only need to be collected and converted into electricity. No exploration, mining, drilling, or refining is needed, and renewable energy gives off practically no pollution.

This is a game changer because the cost of the raw materials used to produce renewable energy is zero. Fossil fuels simply can’t continue to compete with that, even with crude oil being as low as $30 per barrel.

Until recently, one of the biggest limiters to the growth of renewable energy has been storage. Fossil fuels store energy in their natural state, and release it when the fuels are burned. Renewable energy must be stored once it is created so consumers can use it as needed. Without storage, renewable resources are only an intermittent source of energy. To solve this issue, companies are investing billions in the advancement of electric storage technology. Leading the pack, Tesla* has announced its new Powerwall, a home-based electricity storage system that stores the electricity produced by solar panels.

As alternative energy technologies advance and prices decline, electric vehicles will replace gasoline-powered ones. Already, the benefits of an electric car over a gasoline one are almost too overwhelming to ignore. A recent example from Consumer Reports estimated that it cost about $3,000 annually to fuel a Jeep Cherokee in 2013 (assuming roughly 12,000 miles were traveled). Comparatively, the cost of driving a Tesla Roadster the same distance is only $315 per year. That means, over a five-year period, there is a fuel savings of over $13,000. Not only are electric vehicles cheaper to drive, they are cheaper to maintain. They require less service and have fewer parts, meaning fewer things to repair over the life of the car.

Its Complicated, but…. 

The recent precipitous drop in oil prices is very likely due to a variety of complex economic factors. The price of oil has long been a leading indicator of the health of a global economy dependent on fossil fuels for its crucial energy needs, so oil’s recent price drop has the markets fearing a global recession. Yet, could the problem be about oil itself as well as the economy? 

The Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Aramco) has recently stated it is considering an initial public offering to sell off some of its assets. This could be aimed purely at diversification, but the company could also be seeking to divest itself of assets that might become obsolete in the next 20 years.

If the world's largest oil-producing country is considering diversifying part of its fossil fuel-based energy holdings, maybe it’s time individual investors contemplate doing the same. The market currently distinguishes little between fossil fuel energy prices and alternative energy prices - but if the latter is truly beginning to displace the former - SRI investors are in the right place. 

Mention of specific securities is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bear Sighting – Time to Panic?

The global stock markets do seem to be in panic mode right now.  In the first two weeks of 2016, the U.S. S&P 500 index was down 8% on the year, close to correction territory (a 10% decline), with some predicting a bear market (a 20% decline).  

We’ve also been hearing a widely publicized, rather alarming prediction from Royal Bank of Scotland analyst Andrew Roberts, saying that the global markets “look similar to 2008.”  Mr. Roberts is also predicting that technology and automation will wipe out half of all jobs in the developed world.  If you listen closely out the window, you can almost hear traders shouting, “Sell!  Head for the exits!”

When you’re in the middle of so much panic, when people are stampeding in all directions, it’s hard to realize there might be no actual fire in the theater.  Yes, oil prices are down around $30 a barrel, and could go lower, which is not exactly terrific news for oil companies and oil services concerns—particularly those who have invested in fracking production.  But cheaper energy IS good news for manufacturers and consumers, which is sometimes forgotten in the gloomy forecasts.  Bad news for oil could also mean some good news for alternative energy and the environment, especially given that energy demand is not likely to plummet indefinitely.  There is plenty of angst about China.  Chinese stocks and the Chinese economy are showing more signs of weakness, and this is affecting expected energy demand.

So what about the RBS analyst who is yelling “Fire!” in the crowded theater?  A closer look at Mr. Roberts’ track record shows that he has been predicting disaster, with some regularity, for the past six years—rather incorrectly, as it turns out.  In June 2010, when the markets were embarking on a remarkable five-year boom, he wrote, “We cannot stress enough how strongly we believe that a cliff-edge may be around the corner, for the global banking system (particularly in Europe) and for the global economy.  Think the unthinkable,” he added, ominously. (“The unthinkable,” whatever that meant, never happened.)

Again, in July 2012, his analyst report read, in part: “People talk about recovery, but to me we are in a much worse shape than the Great Depression.”  Wow!  Wasn’t it scary to have lived through, well, a 3.2% economic growth rate in the U.S. the following year?  What Great Depression was he talking about?  Taking his advice in the past would have put you on the sidelines for some of the nicest gains in recent stock market history.  And it’s interesting to note that one thing Mr. Roberts did NOT predict was the 2008 market meltdown.

As we stated in last week’s blog, the most simple and best explanation is that this recent drawdown is entirely normal.  Since 1950, the U.S. markets have experienced a decline of between 5% and 10% (the territory we’re in already) in 35.5% of all calendar years.  One in five years (22.6%) have experienced drawdowns of 10-15%, and 17.7% of our last 56 stock market years have seen downturns, at some point in the year, above 20%.  

Stocks periodically go on sale because people panic and sell them at just about any price they can get in their rush to the exits, and we are clearly experiencing one of those periods now.  Whether this will be one of those 5-10% years or a 20% year, only time will tell.  But in the past, every one of those drawdowns eventually ended with an even greater upturn and markets testing new record highs.  

So stay in your seats. Don’t join the panic. Enjoy the movie instead.


Beauty and the Bear

Last week, just as people were getting underway with their new year, markets around the world opened in steep decline. Although it is not officially a bear market, that burly beast is on the tip of many an investor’s tongue - and mind. 

Are we heading into a bear market? That remains to be seen. But bear markets happen periodically, and what’s most important when they do occur isn’t when they happen. Rather, it’s how you react to them.  Avoiding panic during bear markets is key to successful investing – and to building long-term wealth.

If you look at the stock market over the past century, there are several important things to note and remember. First, markets are cyclical - an endless stream of ebbs and flows, gains and losses, highs and lows. In addition, over time, they’ve gone up more than they’ve fallen – yielding consistent, steady gains over the long term. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but this trend is long-standing.

Even more beautiful is that low points in the market are when there is the greatest probability of future gains. Periods of high performance begin when current performance is low.

It’s natural to consider selling when stocks are on the decline, but that is exactly what you don’t want to do. In fact, investors who succumb to fear and sell during bear markets can do significant damage to their long-term wealth. Not only are they selling when returns are at their lowest, they are selling when the odds are greatest that future returns will be high.

So, whether the next bear market is still in the future or at our doorstep right now, we invite you to stay present to the cyclical nature of the market, and see the opportunity such an environment provides. SRI investors are patient investors, having faith that in the long run their prudent investments in the companies that have the best chance of leading a sustainable economy will pay off, for them and the world. 

Metro New York-Based "Green" Investment Advisor Expanding into Upstate/New England Region

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In Addition to New Office in New Paltz, NY, SRI Investing LLC Joins Forces with First Affirmative Financial Network, Premier SRI Portfolio Manager

NEW YORK CITY (November 11, 2015) – With a growing number of investors clamoring for SRI (Sustainable, Responsible, Impact) investing options, two financial advisors with a combined 40 years of financial advisory experience today announced the expansion of metro New York-based SRI Investing LLC, along with a new website at www.SRIinvesting.com. In addition to its current office location in Manhattan, SRI Investing is opening doors in New Paltz, NY, in order to serve new clients in upstate New York, along with Vermont and New Hampshire.

SRI Investing is a collaboration of Gary R. Matthews, PhD CPA/PFS and Amy D. Pender. Matthews, who began his career in finance as a CPA and tax consultant in 1979, later earned a PhD in social ethics in an effort to find a “better way of doing business.” He then dedicated his professional practice solely to SRI, beginning in 2000. Pender began her career as an educator. She put her teaching skills to use aiding non-profit organizations with fundraising and mission-driven work that sought to make the world a better place. In 2010, she joined Merrill Lynch and acquired both Series 7 and 66 securities licenses before joining First Affirmative as an Investment Advisor Representative in 2013.

SRI Investing offers sophisticated state-of-the-art SRI investment along with financial planning advice.

SRI Investing Co-founder and CEO Gary Matthews said: “Our clients are looking for an advisor who can help them do something important and meaningful with their money. They want to live in a world that is peaceful, sustainable, and where all people have a decent opportunity for financial security and success. They want that for their children too. We help them invest in ways that are helping to bring about that kind of world. We help them invest in a fairer and greener economy.

SRI Investing Co-founder Amy Pender added: “Our goal in launching SRI Investing was to provide an SRI advisory resource that contrasts the very generic approach to ethical and impact investing provided by most mainstream advisors. We take the time to truly understand each client’s values as well as their risk tolerance, and we develop portfolios that are in sync with both sets of criteria. Why SRI? First and foremost, we believe in it.  It is sound and robust investing that provides competitive returns. This empowers clients.  Another focal point is our independence. We have no proprietary products to sell, but we still offer a complete suite of services that address a broad array of financial needs—SRI investing, retirement, financial, tax and estate planning.

SRI Investing’s primary third-party portfolio manager is First Affirmative Financial Network. Since 1988, First Affirmative has focused on serving socially conscious, environmentally responsible investors. By integrating environmental, social, and governance (ESG) analysis into the investment process, the firm is able to design portfolios that align investors' values with their financial goals. First Affirmative's Sustainable Investment Solutions process places a heavy emphasis on diversification to mitigate market risks, finding the mix of investment assets with the highest probability of meeting each client's unique needs.

First Affirmative President Steve Schueth said: “Gary and Amy make a tremendous team. SRI Investing is a sorely needed practice in many of the geographical areas they will be working in. First Affirmative is proud to serve as their SRI portfolio manager for their socially conscious clients. We look forward to making their new endeavor as successful as possible in places like upstate New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire, in addition to metro New York and New Jersey.”

For more information, SRI Investing launched a new website in late October 2015 at www.SRIinvesting.com

ABOUT SRI INVESTING LLC

SRI Investing LLC (www.SRIinvesting.com) is an independent Registered Investment Advisor that is committed to: Helping its individual clients achieve financially healthy, rewarding, and joyful lives; Empowering non-profit and religious organizations to invest their financial resources safely, profitably, and in concert with their respective missions; and Encouraging and assisting its clients with investing in ways that fit their values and contribute to a world that is more peaceful, just, and sustainable. SRI Investing is among the relatively few professional financial advisory firms in the country that specializes solely in SRI—Sustainable, Responsible, Impact investing (aka socially responsible investing) and financial planning.

About First Affirmative Financial Network

First Affirmative Financial Network, LLC (http://www.firstaffirmative.com) is an independent Registered Investment Advisor (SEC File #801-56587) offering investment consulting and asset management services through a nationwide network of investment professionals like SRI Investing who specialize in serving socially conscious investors. First Affirmative produces the annual SRI Conference (http://www.SRIconference.com).

CONTACT: Patrick Mitchell at 703-276-3266 or [email protected]

The Paris Attacks

Many of us watched news coverage of the multiple terrorist acts against the city of Paris, France, with a mixture of horror and dread.  The horror was our natural response to terrorism, the feeling that arises when we ask ourselves: how can people think this way?  The dread, of course, comes from the realization that these attacks could have, and might still; happen here—that is, wherever we happen to be sitting, whatever concert venue or restaurant we might be planning to visit.

Hard on these emotions comes outrage, and that helps illustrate something that is seldom realized about terrorism.  In a recently published book entitled The Better Angels of Our Nature, author Steven Pinker points out that terrorism is far from a new phenomenon.  After the Roman conquest, resistance fighters in Judea—who called themselves zealots—would stab unguarded Roman officials whenever the opportunity arose.  In the 11th century, Shia Muslims launched furtive assassinations on officials who practiced a different version of their belief system.  For 200 years, a cult in India strangled tens of thousands of people traveling through their country.  The assassination of U.S. President William McKinley was executed by a particularly ugly breed of terrorist known at the time as anarchists.  Most of us remember days when London and Belfast were routinely rocked by Irish Republican Army terror strikes, and in the U.S., the Weather Underground of the 1960s had a terrible habit of setting off explosives in public places.  

The book lists many other instances of terrorist organizations, but all of them prove a point: eventually, each of these groups will go too far, provoke the consciousness of the general public in the wrong way, and turn sympathy to their cause into outrage.  Pinker cites statistics that show that virtually zero terrorist organizations ever accomplish their aims, and they tend to die out after their most visible credibility-destroying “success.”  The next year or two will most likely reveal the ISIS attacks on Paris to have been a fatal mistake for those who dream of an Islamic, Sharia-governed ruling body in Syria and Iraq. 

As the horror of the events in Paris are translated into uncertainty about the world we live in—and, therefore, the safety of our assets, stock markets are likely to react with greater volatility, possibly on the downside.  The markets often respond reflexively and negatively to threats to our safety.

But as the year proceeds through its last few weeks, wiser investors will likely prevail and any downturns should prove temporary.  Fears that global enterprises are somehow worth less because of troubling events overseas will prove to be overblown.  More importantly, after the events in Paris, the object of our horror and fear—the terrorist organization known as ISIS—will confront an opponent much more powerful: the resolve, disgust and repudiation of moderate members of the Muslim faith and of all faiths, in the Middle East and elsewhere.

The world changed over the weekend, but not in a way that affects the value of your investments.  Sane people the world over will hope, pray, and work to create a more peaceful world, and SRI investors will continue to seek out investments in companies that will help bring about that world.